Solano Real Estate Scene: Jim Porter
Article By: Jim Porter – October 2, 2026
Most of us remember Silicon Valley and First Republic, along with a bunch of other regional banks, failing between 2022 and 2024.
They could not afford to pay their depositors 5% for six-month and one-year certificates of deposit after funding billions of 3% interest rate mortgages during the refinance mania from 2020 until St. Patrick’s Day 2022.
The one-year treasury bill and the two-year T-bill are yielding 4.56% and 4.9% today, which is lower than what short-term treasury yields were from 2022 to 2024.
The long end of the market, on the other hand, is at a 24-year high this week, which is making me sick to my stomach because mortgage rates ride with the 10-year treasury. The 10-year hit 5.31% (Wednesday) and the 30-year treasury is now a whopping 5.64%. This has not been this high since the middle of 2002.
The Bankrate national average mortgage rate is 7.34%, and Mortgage News Daily is quoting 7.6%. Kalshi Contracts is predicting a 64% chance of 7.4% mortgage rates this Christmas, and the Polymarket Odds makers are quoting a 57% probability of 7.25%. The Porterhouse Stakes team has a beefy prediction that there is a 58% chance mortgage rates will rally and get back below 7% by Thanksgiving, and below 6.75% by New Year’s Eve.
All we need is Brent Crude Oil to drop from $103 to $85 per barrel prior to the mid-term elections, and who knows, we may have a bond and stock market rally in the next 30 to 45 days to end this strange year on a high note.
Happy Holidays coming soon.
Jim Porter, NMLS No. 276412, is the branch manager and senior loan adviser of Solano Mortgage, NMLS No. 1515497, a division of American Pacific Mortgage Corporation, NMLS No. 1850, licensed in California by the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation under the CRMLA / Equal Housing Opportunity. Jim can be reached at 707-449-4777.
Jim Porter, NMLS No. 276412, is the branch manager of Solano Mortgage, NMLS No. 1515497, a division of American Pacific Mortgage Corporation, NMLS No. 1850, licensed in California by the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation under the CRMLA / Equal Housing Opportunity. Jim can be reached at 707-449-4777.
